The Bua River Basin in Malawi today and tomorrow: Linking water quality to socio-ecological pressures and adaptive governance pathways

Riverine ecosystems face interacting environmental, climatic and human pressures that threaten freshwater sustainability. This study assessed the socio-ecological drivers, causal interactions and governance dynamics shaping freshwater vulnerability in Malawi’s Bua River Basin using integrated Drivers–Pressures–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) and Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) frameworks. Physicochemical water-quality measurements across spatial and seasonal gradients were combined with qualitative field observations. Factorial ANOVA revealed significant seasonal and physicochemical variability (F₂,₅₂ = 21.84, p < 0.0001), with season–parameter interactions showing that hydrological variability affected indicators differently. Weak spatial interactions suggested catchment-wide influences. Key changes included elevated turbidity, riparian vegetation loss, exposed riverbanks and sediment mobilisation, driven by agricultural expansion, domestic activities and hydrological variability. The integrated analysis identified reinforcing feedbacks among livelihood dependence, hydropower-related problems, weak institutional coordination and declining freshwater resilience. Trade-offs emerged where intensified agriculture and freshwater-resource utilisation supported short-term livelihoods while accelerating ecological degradation, whereas riparian protection and local stewardship practices demonstrated potential resilience-supporting synergies. Overall, the findings show that freshwater degradation within the Bua River Basin is driven by interacting hydrological, ecological and socio-economic pressures, highlighting the value of integrated DPSIR and SES approaches for understanding freshwater vulnerability and guiding adaptive governance in tropical river systems.