Impact of sea level rise on LULC in Bahrain

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About Impact of sea level rise on LULC in Bahrain

Human-caused elements of climate change are the leading contributors to the presently observed phenomenon of global sea level rise. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Report, the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain are exacerbated as it is small island nation with low-lying lands. To provide a comprehensive understanding of these impacts, remote sensing technologies have been employed to model sea level rise and to classify the land to be affected. Through this analysis, the inundated areas of a coastal region, Al Sayh, are identified alongside their land use/land cover classification that categorizes the potentially flooded land areas. Initially, Al Sayh is classified by training a model in a supervised pixel-based machine learning algorithm, achieving a 93% accuracy rate. Then, sea level rise inundation is conducted through the utilization of a digital elevation model (DEM).  The inundation has been performed on intervals from 0.5 to 5m sea level rise. The results demonstrate that 0.2% of Al Sayh is impacted at 0.5m and it amounts to almost 100% at 5m. An exponential increase in land lost at 3m rise is also observed when compared to the lower sea levels modelled. This is also reflected when analyzing the classification of the land impacted wherein urban and vegetation areas also face a growth spurt at 3m. The analysis is conducted with the aim to support the Kingdom of Bahrain in the commitment to tackle a predicted 0.5-meter rise in sea level by 2050.

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